Synthetic Controls
Report generated Sunday, September 02, 2018
Ecuador_state Results
combine estimates
| Stacking Estimate (95% CI) | SC Estimate (95% CI) | Time trend Estimate (95% CI) | Time trend (no offset) Estimate (95% CI) | STL+PCA Estimate (95% CI) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9_1 | 0.86 (0.59, 1.24) | 0.86 (0.59, 1.24) | 0.87 (0.51, 1.45) | 0.72 (0.44, 1.18) | 0.82 (0.52, 1.27) |
| 9_10 | 1.29 (0.86, 1.91) | 1.25 (0.86, 1.82) | 1.31 (0.86, 2.07) | 1.32 (0.88, 2.07) | 1.31 (0.87, 1.99) |
| 9_11 | 1.07 (0.89, 1.31) | 1.07 (0.88, 1.3) | 1.36 (1, 1.84) | 1.19 (0.87, 1.62) | 1.13 (0.86, 1.46) |
| 9_12 | 0.7 (0.57, 0.87) | 0.7 (0.57, 0.87) | 0.57 (0.4, 0.82) | 0.56 (0.4, 0.8) | 0.54 (0.39, 0.74) |
| 9_13 | 0.92 (0.52, 1.53) | 0.86 (0.48, 1.39) | 0.95 (0.59, 1.56) | 0.8 (0.48, 1.29) | 0.91 (0.59, 1.38) |
| 9_14 | 1.25 (1.01, 1.56) | 1.24 (1.02, 1.51) | 1.28 (0.96, 1.7) | 0.69 (0.51, 0.91) | 1.19 (0.93, 1.51) |
| 9_15 | 0.79 (0.66, 0.99) | 0.79 (0.66, 0.99) | 0.85 (0.61, 1.18) | 0.81 (0.58, 1.13) | 0.66 (0.49, 0.86) |
| 9_16 | 0.87 (0.68, 1.11) | 0.88 (0.68, 1.11) | 0.85 (0.61, 1.21) | 0.81 (0.57, 1.14) | 0.77 (0.57, 1.05) |
| 9_17 | 0.58 (0.43, 0.76) | 0.58 (0.45, 0.76) | 0.52 (0.35, 0.82) | 0.48 (0.31, 0.74) | 0.51 (0.36, 0.72) |
| 9_19 | 0.93 (0.56, 2.05) | 0.79 (0.54, 1.12) | 1.4 (0.95, 2.08) | 1.36 (0.91, 2.04) | 1.62 (1.02, 2.59) |
| 9_2 | 1.09 (0.74, 1.68) | 1 (0.72, 1.39) | 1.16 (0.75, 1.77) | 1.08 (0.73, 1.57) | 1 (0.67, 1.45) |
| 9_20 | 1.03 (0.85, 1.23) | 1.03 (0.86, 1.23) | 0.76 (0.53, 1.08) | 0.68 (0.48, 0.99) | 0.71 (0.52, 0.96) |
| 9_21 | 0.85 (0.57, 1.07) | 0.86 (0.68, 1.07) | 0.65 (0.46, 0.92) | 0.55 (0.38, 0.77) | 0.57 (0.43, 0.75) |
| 9_22 | 1.09 (0.73, 1.64) | 0.76 (0.49, 1.15) | 1.1 (0.74, 1.67) | 1.1 (0.74, 1.67) | 0.85 (0.62, 1.2) |
| 9_23 | 0.79 (0.48, 1.35) | 0.69 (0.47, 1.02) | 0.82 (0.48, 1.39) | 0.45 (0.28, 0.73) | 0.72 (0.49, 1.07) |
| 9_24 | 0.73 (0.57, 0.97) | 0.73 (0.56, 0.93) | 0.93 (0.66, 1.31) | 0.84 (0.61, 1.15) | 0.81 (0.6, 1.08) |
| 9_25 | 0.7 (0.53, 0.95) | 0.7 (0.53, 0.92) | 0.84 (0.56, 1.24) | 0.7 (0.47, 1.02) | 0.73 (0.52, 1.01) |
| 9_26 | 0.77 (0.58, 1.05) | 0.78 (0.6, 1.05) | 0.74 (0.49, 1.1) | 0.96 (0.65, 1.41) | 1.17 (0.74, 1.85) |
| 9_27 | 1.01 (0.82, 1.24) | 1.01 (0.82, 1.24) | 0.66 (0.47, 0.93) | 0.48 (0.35, 0.66) | 0.73 (0.57, 0.93) |
| 9_28 | 0.68 (0.54, 0.96) | 0.68 (0.53, 0.91) | 0.87 (0.6, 1.24) | 0.9 (0.63, 1.28) | 0.83 (0.61, 1.12) |
| 9_29 | 0.97 (0.63, 1.46) | 0.96 (0.64, 1.44) | 1.09 (0.65, 1.82) | 1.01 (0.63, 1.66) | 0.97 (0.61, 1.53) |
| 9_30 | 0.81 (0.66, 1.04) | 0.81 (0.66, 1.04) | 0.83 (0.59, 1.19) | 0.66 (0.47, 0.93) | 0.7 (0.54, 0.93) |
| 9_31 | 0.9 (0.54, 1.42) | 0.89 (0.54, 1.34) | 0.96 (0.57, 1.59) | 0.9 (0.54, 1.49) | 0.87 (0.57, 1.35) |
| 9_32 | 0.66 (0.46, 0.92) | 0.66 (0.47, 0.91) | 0.73 (0.41, 1.28) | 0.53 (0.33, 0.83) | 0.64 (0.44, 0.92) |
| 9_4 | 0.85 (0.6, 1.22) | 0.85 (0.61, 1.17) | 0.92 (0.58, 1.5) | 0.89 (0.54, 1.47) | 0.8 (0.55, 1.18) |
| 9_5 | 1.04 (0.69, 1.45) | 1.05 (0.76, 1.48) | 0.88 (0.56, 1.36) | 0.9 (0.6, 1.38) | 0.84 (0.58, 1.24) |
| 9_7 | 0.91 (0.54, 1.13) | 0.92 (0.75, 1.13) | 0.96 (0.74, 1.25) | 1.03 (0.76, 1.39) | 0.62 (0.46, 0.82) |
| 9_8 | 1.6 (1.1, 1.97) | 1.62 (1.33, 1.98) | 2.26 (1.61, 3.15) | 1.28 (0.91, 1.75) | 1.58 (1.22, 2.02) |
| 9_9 | 0.98 (0.82, 1.18) | 0.98 (0.82, 1.18) | 0.97 (0.72, 1.3) | 0.92 (0.67, 1.25) | 0.97 (0.78, 1.21) |
Plot of Rate ratios, with size proportional to cross validation weights
Weights for each of the models from cross validation
| groups | Synthetic Controls | Time trend | Time trend (no offset) | STL+PCA |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9_1 | 1.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| 9_10 | 0.470 | 0.000 | 0.169 | 0.361 |
| 9_11 | 0.976 | 0.000 | 0.024 | 0.000 |
| 9_12 | 1.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| 9_13 | 0.307 | 0.627 | 0.066 | 0.000 |
| 9_14 | 0.821 | 0.179 | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| 9_15 | 0.985 | 0.000 | 0.015 | 0.000 |
| 9_16 | 0.991 | 0.000 | 0.009 | 0.000 |
| 9_17 | 0.934 | 0.066 | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| 9_19 | 0.612 | 0.223 | 0.040 | 0.124 |
| 9_2 | 0.250 | 0.524 | 0.225 | 0.000 |
| 9_20 | 1.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| 9_21 | 0.957 | 0.000 | 0.043 | 0.000 |
| 9_22 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.973 | 0.027 |
| 9_23 | 0.000 | 0.761 | 0.000 | 0.239 |
| 9_24 | 0.925 | 0.000 | 0.075 | 0.000 |
| 9_25 | 0.844 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.156 |
| 9_26 | 0.884 | 0.116 | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| 9_27 | 1.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| 9_28 | 0.907 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.092 |
| 9_29 | 0.708 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.292 |
| 9_30 | 0.984 | 0.016 | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| 9_31 | 0.560 | 0.000 | 0.440 | 0.000 |
| 9_32 | 0.828 | 0.012 | 0.000 | 0.160 |
| 9_4 | 0.908 | 0.000 | 0.092 | 0.000 |
| 9_5 | 0.869 | 0.130 | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| 9_7 | 0.880 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.120 |
| 9_8 | 0.859 | 0.000 | 0.138 | 0.003 |
| 9_9 | 0.900 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.100 |
Inclusion Probabilities
| Group | Greatest Inclusion Variable | Greatest Inclusion Probability | Second Greatest Inclusion Variable | Second Greatest Inclusion Probability | Third Greatest Inclusion Variable | Third Greatest Inclusion Probability |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9_1 | cJ20_J22 | 0.9994123 | P05_07 | 0.5158293 | pandemic | 0.1647576 |
| 9_10 | cJ20_J22 | 0.9561082 | ach_noj | 0.9504012 | P00_99 | 0.6814247 |
| 9_11 | cJ20_J22 | 1.0000000 | ach_noj | 0.8752773 | P00_99 | 0.2027327 |
| 9_12 | cJ20_J22 | 1.0000000 | P05_07 | 0.0967398 | Q00_99 | 0.0731168 |
| 9_13 | ach_noj | 0.5688854 | Q00_99 | 0.4944114 | P00_99 | 0.4630461 |
| 9_14 | cJ20_J22 | 0.9999980 | ach_noj | 0.8533965 | P00_99 | 0.4554843 |
| 9_15 | cJ20_J22 | 1.0000000 | A10_B99_nopneumo | 0.8820348 | G00_99_SY | 0.3364397 |
| 9_16 | cJ20_J22 | 1.0000000 | P05_07 | 0.4928575 | P00_99 | 0.1443740 |
| 9_17 | cJ20_J22 | 1.0000000 | ach_noj | 0.1424476 | Q00_99 | 0.1105107 |
| 9_19 | cJ20_J22 | 1.0000000 | P00_99 | 0.8608346 | P05_07 | 0.7570929 |
| 9_2 | Q00_99 | 0.4315661 | pandemic | 0.1853375 | ach_noj | 0.1808753 |
| 9_20 | cJ20_J22 | 1.0000000 | pandemic | 0.0761449 | ach_noj | 0.0620349 |
| 9_21 | cJ20_J22 | 1.0000000 | P00_99 | 0.1505784 | ach_noj | 0.1300610 |
| 9_22 | P00_99 | 0.8222074 | ach_noj | 0.7329520 | P05_07 | 0.2097629 |
| 9_23 | ach_noj | 0.4334206 | pandemic | 0.4262826 | P00_99 | 0.3985926 |
| 9_24 | cJ20_J22 | 0.9999998 | P05_07 | 0.8941671 | ach_noj | 0.1600369 |
| 9_25 | cJ20_J22 | 0.9981380 | Q00_99 | 0.2444503 | ach_noj | 0.1483336 |
| 9_26 | cJ20_J22 | 1.0000000 | ach_noj | 0.1168935 | P00_99 | 0.0982109 |
| 9_27 | cJ20_J22 | 1.0000000 | P05_07 | 0.8878698 | P00_99 | 0.5235614 |
| 9_28 | cJ20_J22 | 1.0000000 | P00_99 | 0.3653471 | ach_noj | 0.0774709 |
| 9_29 | cJ20_J22 | 0.9994467 | ach_noj | 0.7418062 | P00_99 | 0.2490709 |
| 9_30 | cJ20_J22 | 1.0000000 | P00_99 | 0.2420681 | K00_99 | 0.1898945 |
| 9_31 | pandemic | 0.6818482 | ach_noj | 0.2168604 | P00_99 | 0.2069949 |
| 9_32 | cJ20_J22 | 1.0000000 | Q00_99 | 0.1446221 | P00_99 | 0.1191570 |
| 9_4 | cJ20_J22 | 1.0000000 | P00_99 | 0.5228051 | P05_07 | 0.4240355 |
| 9_5 | cJ20_J22 | 0.9929698 | pandemic | 0.1310331 | P00_99 | 0.0949465 |
| 9_7 | cJ20_J22 | 1.0000000 | P00_99 | 0.3497302 | ach_noj | 0.3267441 |
| 9_8 | cJ20_J22 | 1.0000000 | pandemic | 0.1906908 | K00_99 | 0.1047347 |
| 9_9 | cJ20_J22 | 1.0000000 | A10_B99_nopneumo | 0.9454012 | Z00_99 | 0.5246774 |
Weight Sensitivity Analysis
| Estimate (95% CI) | Top Control 1 | Inclusion Probability of Control 1 | Control 1 Estimate (95% CI) | Top Control 2 | Inclusion Probability of Control 2 | Control 2 Estimate (95% CI) | Top Control 3 | Inclusion Probability of Control 3 | Control 3 Estimate (95% CI) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9_1 | 0.86 (0.59, 1.24) | cJ20_J22 | 1 | 0.87 (0.54, 1.35) | P05_07 | 0.52 | 0.85 (0.53, 1.32) | pandemic | 0.16 | 0.84 (0.53, 1.31) |
| 9_10 | 1.25 (0.86, 1.82) | cJ20_J22 | 0.96 | 1.03 (0.69, 1.57) | ach_noj | 0.95 | 0.92 (0.64, 1.35) | P00_99 | 0.68 | 0.95 (0.67, 1.36) |
| 9_11 | 1.07 (0.88, 1.3) | cJ20_J22 | 1 | 1.18 (0.92, 1.52) | ach_noj | 0.88 | 1.18 (0.92, 1.51) | P00_99 | 0.2 | 1.18 (0.91, 1.5) |
| 9_12 | 0.7 (0.57, 0.87) | cJ20_J22 | 1 | 0.58 (0.44, 0.77) | P05_07 | 0.1 | 0.58 (0.43, 0.77) | Q00_99 | 0.07 | 0.57 (0.43, 0.76) |
| 9_13 | 0.86 (0.48, 1.39) | ach_noj | 0.57 | 0.9 (0.5, 1.38) | Q00_99 | 0.49 | 0.9 (0.51, 1.4) | P00_99 | 0.46 | 0.92 (0.53, 1.42) |
| 9_14 | 1.24 (1.02, 1.51) | cJ20_J22 | 1 | 1.21 (0.95, 1.54) | ach_noj | 0.85 | 1.16 (0.9, 1.48) | P00_99 | 0.46 | 1.16 (0.91, 1.5) |
| 9_15 | 0.79 (0.66, 0.99) | cJ20_J22 | 1 | 0.71 (0.54, 0.97) | A10_B99_nopneumo | 0.88 | 0.82 (0.61, 1.09) | G00_99_SY | 0.34 | 0.82 (0.6, 1.09) |
| 9_16 | 0.88 (0.68, 1.11) | cJ20_J22 | 1 | 0.84 (0.58, 1.22) | P05_07 | 0.49 | 0.89 (0.63, 1.23) | P00_99 | 0.14 | 0.9 (0.64, 1.25) |
| 9_17 | 0.58 (0.45, 0.76) | cJ20_J22 | 1 | 0.51 (0.35, 0.77) | ach_noj | 0.14 | 0.48 (0.33, 0.67) | Q00_99 | 0.11 | 0.48 (0.33, 0.68) |
| 9_19 | 0.79 (0.54, 1.12) | cJ20_J22 | 1 | 0.98 (0.63, 1.48) | P00_99 | 0.86 | 0.93 (0.6, 1.38) | P05_07 | 0.76 | 0.84 (0.56, 1.24) |
| 9_2 | 1 (0.72, 1.39) | Q00_99 | 0.43 | 1.02 (0.73, 1.39) | pandemic | 0.19 | 1.02 (0.73, 1.41) | ach_noj | 0.18 | 1.02 (0.74, 1.4) |
| 9_20 | 1.03 (0.86, 1.23) | cJ20_J22 | 1 | 0.67 (0.48, 0.94) | pandemic | 0.08 | 0.7 (0.5, 1.01) | ach_noj | 0.06 | 0.68 (0.48, 0.98) |
| 9_21 | 0.86 (0.68, 1.07) | cJ20_J22 | 1 | 0.57 (0.42, 0.78) | P00_99 | 0.15 | 0.62 (0.46, 0.82) | ach_noj | 0.13 | 0.67 (0.49, 0.9) |
| 9_22 | 0.76 (0.49, 1.15) | P00_99 | 0.82 | 0.64 (0.43, 0.96) | ach_noj | 0.73 | 0.62 (0.44, 0.88) | P05_07 | 0.21 | 0.66 (0.47, 0.93) |
| 9_23 | 0.69 (0.47, 1.02) | ach_noj | 0.43 | 0.7 (0.47, 1.03) | pandemic | 0.43 | 0.71 (0.48, 1.03) | P00_99 | 0.4 | 0.68 (0.47, 1.01) |
| 9_24 | 0.73 (0.56, 0.93) | cJ20_J22 | 1 | 0.84 (0.64, 1.13) | P05_07 | 0.89 | 0.83 (0.64, 1.07) | ach_noj | 0.16 | 0.83 (0.63, 1.08) |
| 9_25 | 0.7 (0.53, 0.92) | cJ20_J22 | 1 | 0.84 (0.59, 1.16) | Q00_99 | 0.24 | 0.83 (0.59, 1.15) | ach_noj | 0.15 | 0.84 (0.58, 1.17) |
| 9_26 | 0.78 (0.6, 1.05) | cJ20_J22 | 1 | 0.87 (0.63, 1.29) | ach_noj | 0.12 | 0.87 (0.63, 1.29) | P00_99 | 0.1 | 0.84 (0.62, 1.15) |
| 9_27 | 1.01 (0.82, 1.24) | cJ20_J22 | 1 | 0.67 (0.51, 0.87) | P05_07 | 0.89 | 0.65 (0.49, 0.85) | P00_99 | 0.52 | 0.69 (0.53, 0.9) |
| 9_28 | 0.68 (0.53, 0.91) | cJ20_J22 | 1 | 0.76 (0.52, 1.12) | P00_99 | 0.37 | 0.67 (0.5, 0.9) | ach_noj | 0.08 | 0.67 (0.49, 0.89) |
| 9_29 | 0.96 (0.64, 1.44) | cJ20_J22 | 1 | 0.84 (0.55, 1.26) | ach_noj | 0.74 | 0.84 (0.57, 1.28) | P00_99 | 0.25 | 0.83 (0.56, 1.24) |
| 9_30 | 0.81 (0.66, 1.04) | cJ20_J22 | 1 | 0.73 (0.55, 0.95) | P00_99 | 0.24 | 0.72 (0.56, 0.94) | K00_99 | 0.19 | 0.72 (0.56, 0.95) |
| 9_31 | 0.89 (0.54, 1.34) | pandemic | 0.68 | 0.92 (0.57, 1.42) | ach_noj | 0.22 | 0.93 (0.6, 1.39) | P00_99 | 0.21 | 0.93 (0.63, 1.4) |
| 9_32 | 0.66 (0.47, 0.91) | cJ20_J22 | 1 | 0.75 (0.47, 1.11) | Q00_99 | 0.14 | 0.74 (0.48, 1.1) | P00_99 | 0.12 | 0.74 (0.47, 1.09) |
| 9_4 | 0.85 (0.61, 1.17) | cJ20_J22 | 1 | 0.8 (0.53, 1.18) | P00_99 | 0.52 | 0.81 (0.54, 1.21) | P05_07 | 0.42 | 0.82 (0.56, 1.21) |
| 9_5 | 1.05 (0.76, 1.48) | cJ20_J22 | 0.99 | 1 (0.67, 1.43) | pandemic | 0.13 | 1 (0.68, 1.42) | P00_99 | 0.09 | 1 (0.68, 1.42) |
| 9_7 | 0.92 (0.75, 1.13) | cJ20_J22 | 1 | 0.9 (0.7, 1.17) | P00_99 | 0.35 | 0.88 (0.7, 1.12) | ach_noj | 0.33 | 1.15 (0.85, 1.57) |
| 9_8 | 1.62 (1.33, 1.98) | cJ20_J22 | 1 | 1.71 (1.31, 2.21) | pandemic | 0.19 | 1.72 (1.32, 2.21) | K00_99 | 0.1 | 1.62 (1.25, 2.12) |
| 9_9 | 0.98 (0.82, 1.18) | cJ20_J22 | 1 | 1.06 (0.81, 1.41) | A10_B99_nopneumo | 0.95 | 1.11 (0.83, 1.53) | Z00_99 | 0.52 | 1.15 (0.83, 1.54) |
Plots
9_1
9_10
9_11
## Warning: Removed 1 rows containing missing values (geom_point).
## Warning: Removed 1 rows containing missing values (geom_point).
## Warning: Removed 1 rows containing missing values (geom_point).
## Warning: Removed 1 rows containing missing values (geom_point).
9_12
9_13
9_14
## Warning: Removed 1 rows containing missing values (geom_point).
## Warning: Removed 1 rows containing missing values (geom_point).
## Warning: Removed 1 rows containing missing values (geom_point).
## Warning: Removed 1 rows containing missing values (geom_point).
9_15
9_16
9_17
9_19
## Warning: Removed 1 rows containing missing values (geom_point).
9_2
9_20
9_21
9_22
9_23
9_24
9_25
9_26
9_27
9_28
9_29
## Warning: Removed 1 rows containing missing values (geom_point).
## Warning: Removed 1 rows containing missing values (geom_point).
## Warning: Removed 1 rows containing missing values (geom_point).
9_30
## Warning: Removed 1 rows containing missing values (geom_point).
## Warning: Removed 1 rows containing missing values (geom_point).
## Warning: Removed 1 rows containing missing values (geom_point).
## Warning: Removed 1 rows containing missing values (geom_point).
9_31
9_32
9_4
9_5
9_7
9_8
## Warning: Removed 1 rows containing missing values (geom_point).
## Warning: Removed 1 rows containing missing values (geom_point).
## Warning: Removed 1 rows containing missing values (geom_point).
## Warning: Removed 1 rows containing missing values (geom_point).
9_9
