Ecuador_state Results

combine estimates

Stacking Estimate (95% CI) SC Estimate (95% CI) Time trend Estimate (95% CI) Time trend (no offset) Estimate (95% CI) STL+PCA Estimate (95% CI)
9_1 0.86 (0.59, 1.24) 0.86 (0.59, 1.24) 0.87 (0.51, 1.45) 0.72 (0.44, 1.18) 0.82 (0.52, 1.27)
9_10 1.29 (0.86, 1.91) 1.25 (0.86, 1.82) 1.31 (0.86, 2.07) 1.32 (0.88, 2.07) 1.31 (0.87, 1.99)
9_11 1.07 (0.89, 1.31) 1.07 (0.88, 1.3) 1.36 (1, 1.84) 1.19 (0.87, 1.62) 1.13 (0.86, 1.46)
9_12 0.7 (0.57, 0.87) 0.7 (0.57, 0.87) 0.57 (0.4, 0.82) 0.56 (0.4, 0.8) 0.54 (0.39, 0.74)
9_13 0.92 (0.52, 1.53) 0.86 (0.48, 1.39) 0.95 (0.59, 1.56) 0.8 (0.48, 1.29) 0.91 (0.59, 1.38)
9_14 1.25 (1.01, 1.56) 1.24 (1.02, 1.51) 1.28 (0.96, 1.7) 0.69 (0.51, 0.91) 1.19 (0.93, 1.51)
9_15 0.79 (0.66, 0.99) 0.79 (0.66, 0.99) 0.85 (0.61, 1.18) 0.81 (0.58, 1.13) 0.66 (0.49, 0.86)
9_16 0.87 (0.68, 1.11) 0.88 (0.68, 1.11) 0.85 (0.61, 1.21) 0.81 (0.57, 1.14) 0.77 (0.57, 1.05)
9_17 0.58 (0.43, 0.76) 0.58 (0.45, 0.76) 0.52 (0.35, 0.82) 0.48 (0.31, 0.74) 0.51 (0.36, 0.72)
9_19 0.93 (0.56, 2.05) 0.79 (0.54, 1.12) 1.4 (0.95, 2.08) 1.36 (0.91, 2.04) 1.62 (1.02, 2.59)
9_2 1.09 (0.74, 1.68) 1 (0.72, 1.39) 1.16 (0.75, 1.77) 1.08 (0.73, 1.57) 1 (0.67, 1.45)
9_20 1.03 (0.85, 1.23) 1.03 (0.86, 1.23) 0.76 (0.53, 1.08) 0.68 (0.48, 0.99) 0.71 (0.52, 0.96)
9_21 0.85 (0.57, 1.07) 0.86 (0.68, 1.07) 0.65 (0.46, 0.92) 0.55 (0.38, 0.77) 0.57 (0.43, 0.75)
9_22 1.09 (0.73, 1.64) 0.76 (0.49, 1.15) 1.1 (0.74, 1.67) 1.1 (0.74, 1.67) 0.85 (0.62, 1.2)
9_23 0.79 (0.48, 1.35) 0.69 (0.47, 1.02) 0.82 (0.48, 1.39) 0.45 (0.28, 0.73) 0.72 (0.49, 1.07)
9_24 0.73 (0.57, 0.97) 0.73 (0.56, 0.93) 0.93 (0.66, 1.31) 0.84 (0.61, 1.15) 0.81 (0.6, 1.08)
9_25 0.7 (0.53, 0.95) 0.7 (0.53, 0.92) 0.84 (0.56, 1.24) 0.7 (0.47, 1.02) 0.73 (0.52, 1.01)
9_26 0.77 (0.58, 1.05) 0.78 (0.6, 1.05) 0.74 (0.49, 1.1) 0.96 (0.65, 1.41) 1.17 (0.74, 1.85)
9_27 1.01 (0.82, 1.24) 1.01 (0.82, 1.24) 0.66 (0.47, 0.93) 0.48 (0.35, 0.66) 0.73 (0.57, 0.93)
9_28 0.68 (0.54, 0.96) 0.68 (0.53, 0.91) 0.87 (0.6, 1.24) 0.9 (0.63, 1.28) 0.83 (0.61, 1.12)
9_29 0.97 (0.63, 1.46) 0.96 (0.64, 1.44) 1.09 (0.65, 1.82) 1.01 (0.63, 1.66) 0.97 (0.61, 1.53)
9_30 0.81 (0.66, 1.04) 0.81 (0.66, 1.04) 0.83 (0.59, 1.19) 0.66 (0.47, 0.93) 0.7 (0.54, 0.93)
9_31 0.9 (0.54, 1.42) 0.89 (0.54, 1.34) 0.96 (0.57, 1.59) 0.9 (0.54, 1.49) 0.87 (0.57, 1.35)
9_32 0.66 (0.46, 0.92) 0.66 (0.47, 0.91) 0.73 (0.41, 1.28) 0.53 (0.33, 0.83) 0.64 (0.44, 0.92)
9_4 0.85 (0.6, 1.22) 0.85 (0.61, 1.17) 0.92 (0.58, 1.5) 0.89 (0.54, 1.47) 0.8 (0.55, 1.18)
9_5 1.04 (0.69, 1.45) 1.05 (0.76, 1.48) 0.88 (0.56, 1.36) 0.9 (0.6, 1.38) 0.84 (0.58, 1.24)
9_7 0.91 (0.54, 1.13) 0.92 (0.75, 1.13) 0.96 (0.74, 1.25) 1.03 (0.76, 1.39) 0.62 (0.46, 0.82)
9_8 1.6 (1.1, 1.97) 1.62 (1.33, 1.98) 2.26 (1.61, 3.15) 1.28 (0.91, 1.75) 1.58 (1.22, 2.02)
9_9 0.98 (0.82, 1.18) 0.98 (0.82, 1.18) 0.97 (0.72, 1.3) 0.92 (0.67, 1.25) 0.97 (0.78, 1.21)

Plot of Rate ratios, with size proportional to cross validation weights

Weights for each of the models from cross validation

groups Synthetic Controls Time trend Time trend (no offset) STL+PCA
9_1 1.000 0.000 0.000 0.000
9_10 0.470 0.000 0.169 0.361
9_11 0.976 0.000 0.024 0.000
9_12 1.000 0.000 0.000 0.000
9_13 0.307 0.627 0.066 0.000
9_14 0.821 0.179 0.000 0.000
9_15 0.985 0.000 0.015 0.000
9_16 0.991 0.000 0.009 0.000
9_17 0.934 0.066 0.000 0.000
9_19 0.612 0.223 0.040 0.124
9_2 0.250 0.524 0.225 0.000
9_20 1.000 0.000 0.000 0.000
9_21 0.957 0.000 0.043 0.000
9_22 0.000 0.000 0.973 0.027
9_23 0.000 0.761 0.000 0.239
9_24 0.925 0.000 0.075 0.000
9_25 0.844 0.000 0.000 0.156
9_26 0.884 0.116 0.000 0.000
9_27 1.000 0.000 0.000 0.000
9_28 0.907 0.000 0.000 0.092
9_29 0.708 0.000 0.000 0.292
9_30 0.984 0.016 0.000 0.000
9_31 0.560 0.000 0.440 0.000
9_32 0.828 0.012 0.000 0.160
9_4 0.908 0.000 0.092 0.000
9_5 0.869 0.130 0.001 0.000
9_7 0.880 0.000 0.000 0.120
9_8 0.859 0.000 0.138 0.003
9_9 0.900 0.000 0.000 0.100

Inclusion Probabilities

Group Greatest Inclusion Variable Greatest Inclusion Probability Second Greatest Inclusion Variable Second Greatest Inclusion Probability Third Greatest Inclusion Variable Third Greatest Inclusion Probability
9_1 cJ20_J22 0.9994123 P05_07 0.5158293 pandemic 0.1647576
9_10 cJ20_J22 0.9561082 ach_noj 0.9504012 P00_99 0.6814247
9_11 cJ20_J22 1.0000000 ach_noj 0.8752773 P00_99 0.2027327
9_12 cJ20_J22 1.0000000 P05_07 0.0967398 Q00_99 0.0731168
9_13 ach_noj 0.5688854 Q00_99 0.4944114 P00_99 0.4630461
9_14 cJ20_J22 0.9999980 ach_noj 0.8533965 P00_99 0.4554843
9_15 cJ20_J22 1.0000000 A10_B99_nopneumo 0.8820348 G00_99_SY 0.3364397
9_16 cJ20_J22 1.0000000 P05_07 0.4928575 P00_99 0.1443740
9_17 cJ20_J22 1.0000000 ach_noj 0.1424476 Q00_99 0.1105107
9_19 cJ20_J22 1.0000000 P00_99 0.8608346 P05_07 0.7570929
9_2 Q00_99 0.4315661 pandemic 0.1853375 ach_noj 0.1808753
9_20 cJ20_J22 1.0000000 pandemic 0.0761449 ach_noj 0.0620349
9_21 cJ20_J22 1.0000000 P00_99 0.1505784 ach_noj 0.1300610
9_22 P00_99 0.8222074 ach_noj 0.7329520 P05_07 0.2097629
9_23 ach_noj 0.4334206 pandemic 0.4262826 P00_99 0.3985926
9_24 cJ20_J22 0.9999998 P05_07 0.8941671 ach_noj 0.1600369
9_25 cJ20_J22 0.9981380 Q00_99 0.2444503 ach_noj 0.1483336
9_26 cJ20_J22 1.0000000 ach_noj 0.1168935 P00_99 0.0982109
9_27 cJ20_J22 1.0000000 P05_07 0.8878698 P00_99 0.5235614
9_28 cJ20_J22 1.0000000 P00_99 0.3653471 ach_noj 0.0774709
9_29 cJ20_J22 0.9994467 ach_noj 0.7418062 P00_99 0.2490709
9_30 cJ20_J22 1.0000000 P00_99 0.2420681 K00_99 0.1898945
9_31 pandemic 0.6818482 ach_noj 0.2168604 P00_99 0.2069949
9_32 cJ20_J22 1.0000000 Q00_99 0.1446221 P00_99 0.1191570
9_4 cJ20_J22 1.0000000 P00_99 0.5228051 P05_07 0.4240355
9_5 cJ20_J22 0.9929698 pandemic 0.1310331 P00_99 0.0949465
9_7 cJ20_J22 1.0000000 P00_99 0.3497302 ach_noj 0.3267441
9_8 cJ20_J22 1.0000000 pandemic 0.1906908 K00_99 0.1047347
9_9 cJ20_J22 1.0000000 A10_B99_nopneumo 0.9454012 Z00_99 0.5246774

Weight Sensitivity Analysis

Estimate (95% CI) Top Control 1 Inclusion Probability of Control 1 Control 1 Estimate (95% CI) Top Control 2 Inclusion Probability of Control 2 Control 2 Estimate (95% CI) Top Control 3 Inclusion Probability of Control 3 Control 3 Estimate (95% CI)
9_1 0.86 (0.59, 1.24) cJ20_J22 1 0.87 (0.54, 1.35) P05_07 0.52 0.85 (0.53, 1.32) pandemic 0.16 0.84 (0.53, 1.31)
9_10 1.25 (0.86, 1.82) cJ20_J22 0.96 1.03 (0.69, 1.57) ach_noj 0.95 0.92 (0.64, 1.35) P00_99 0.68 0.95 (0.67, 1.36)
9_11 1.07 (0.88, 1.3) cJ20_J22 1 1.18 (0.92, 1.52) ach_noj 0.88 1.18 (0.92, 1.51) P00_99 0.2 1.18 (0.91, 1.5)
9_12 0.7 (0.57, 0.87) cJ20_J22 1 0.58 (0.44, 0.77) P05_07 0.1 0.58 (0.43, 0.77) Q00_99 0.07 0.57 (0.43, 0.76)
9_13 0.86 (0.48, 1.39) ach_noj 0.57 0.9 (0.5, 1.38) Q00_99 0.49 0.9 (0.51, 1.4) P00_99 0.46 0.92 (0.53, 1.42)
9_14 1.24 (1.02, 1.51) cJ20_J22 1 1.21 (0.95, 1.54) ach_noj 0.85 1.16 (0.9, 1.48) P00_99 0.46 1.16 (0.91, 1.5)
9_15 0.79 (0.66, 0.99) cJ20_J22 1 0.71 (0.54, 0.97) A10_B99_nopneumo 0.88 0.82 (0.61, 1.09) G00_99_SY 0.34 0.82 (0.6, 1.09)
9_16 0.88 (0.68, 1.11) cJ20_J22 1 0.84 (0.58, 1.22) P05_07 0.49 0.89 (0.63, 1.23) P00_99 0.14 0.9 (0.64, 1.25)
9_17 0.58 (0.45, 0.76) cJ20_J22 1 0.51 (0.35, 0.77) ach_noj 0.14 0.48 (0.33, 0.67) Q00_99 0.11 0.48 (0.33, 0.68)
9_19 0.79 (0.54, 1.12) cJ20_J22 1 0.98 (0.63, 1.48) P00_99 0.86 0.93 (0.6, 1.38) P05_07 0.76 0.84 (0.56, 1.24)
9_2 1 (0.72, 1.39) Q00_99 0.43 1.02 (0.73, 1.39) pandemic 0.19 1.02 (0.73, 1.41) ach_noj 0.18 1.02 (0.74, 1.4)
9_20 1.03 (0.86, 1.23) cJ20_J22 1 0.67 (0.48, 0.94) pandemic 0.08 0.7 (0.5, 1.01) ach_noj 0.06 0.68 (0.48, 0.98)
9_21 0.86 (0.68, 1.07) cJ20_J22 1 0.57 (0.42, 0.78) P00_99 0.15 0.62 (0.46, 0.82) ach_noj 0.13 0.67 (0.49, 0.9)
9_22 0.76 (0.49, 1.15) P00_99 0.82 0.64 (0.43, 0.96) ach_noj 0.73 0.62 (0.44, 0.88) P05_07 0.21 0.66 (0.47, 0.93)
9_23 0.69 (0.47, 1.02) ach_noj 0.43 0.7 (0.47, 1.03) pandemic 0.43 0.71 (0.48, 1.03) P00_99 0.4 0.68 (0.47, 1.01)
9_24 0.73 (0.56, 0.93) cJ20_J22 1 0.84 (0.64, 1.13) P05_07 0.89 0.83 (0.64, 1.07) ach_noj 0.16 0.83 (0.63, 1.08)
9_25 0.7 (0.53, 0.92) cJ20_J22 1 0.84 (0.59, 1.16) Q00_99 0.24 0.83 (0.59, 1.15) ach_noj 0.15 0.84 (0.58, 1.17)
9_26 0.78 (0.6, 1.05) cJ20_J22 1 0.87 (0.63, 1.29) ach_noj 0.12 0.87 (0.63, 1.29) P00_99 0.1 0.84 (0.62, 1.15)
9_27 1.01 (0.82, 1.24) cJ20_J22 1 0.67 (0.51, 0.87) P05_07 0.89 0.65 (0.49, 0.85) P00_99 0.52 0.69 (0.53, 0.9)
9_28 0.68 (0.53, 0.91) cJ20_J22 1 0.76 (0.52, 1.12) P00_99 0.37 0.67 (0.5, 0.9) ach_noj 0.08 0.67 (0.49, 0.89)
9_29 0.96 (0.64, 1.44) cJ20_J22 1 0.84 (0.55, 1.26) ach_noj 0.74 0.84 (0.57, 1.28) P00_99 0.25 0.83 (0.56, 1.24)
9_30 0.81 (0.66, 1.04) cJ20_J22 1 0.73 (0.55, 0.95) P00_99 0.24 0.72 (0.56, 0.94) K00_99 0.19 0.72 (0.56, 0.95)
9_31 0.89 (0.54, 1.34) pandemic 0.68 0.92 (0.57, 1.42) ach_noj 0.22 0.93 (0.6, 1.39) P00_99 0.21 0.93 (0.63, 1.4)
9_32 0.66 (0.47, 0.91) cJ20_J22 1 0.75 (0.47, 1.11) Q00_99 0.14 0.74 (0.48, 1.1) P00_99 0.12 0.74 (0.47, 1.09)
9_4 0.85 (0.61, 1.17) cJ20_J22 1 0.8 (0.53, 1.18) P00_99 0.52 0.81 (0.54, 1.21) P05_07 0.42 0.82 (0.56, 1.21)
9_5 1.05 (0.76, 1.48) cJ20_J22 0.99 1 (0.67, 1.43) pandemic 0.13 1 (0.68, 1.42) P00_99 0.09 1 (0.68, 1.42)
9_7 0.92 (0.75, 1.13) cJ20_J22 1 0.9 (0.7, 1.17) P00_99 0.35 0.88 (0.7, 1.12) ach_noj 0.33 1.15 (0.85, 1.57)
9_8 1.62 (1.33, 1.98) cJ20_J22 1 1.71 (1.31, 2.21) pandemic 0.19 1.72 (1.32, 2.21) K00_99 0.1 1.62 (1.25, 2.12)
9_9 0.98 (0.82, 1.18) cJ20_J22 1 1.06 (0.81, 1.41) A10_B99_nopneumo 0.95 1.11 (0.83, 1.53) Z00_99 0.52 1.15 (0.83, 1.54)

Plots

9_1

9_10

9_11

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9_12

9_13

9_14

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9_15

9_16

9_17

9_19

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9_2

9_20

9_21

9_22

9_23

9_24

9_25

9_26

9_27

9_28

9_29

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9_30

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9_31

9_32

9_4

9_5

9_7

9_8

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9_9